Volatility and supply challenges in the global market, amendments to the US sanctions bill, and a relaxation of tariffs.

According to an analyst at Kpler, proposed US tariffs targeting countries that purchase Russian crude oil could create fresh instability in global oil markets, but replacing Russian supply would be difficult given limited spare production capacity and ongoing geopolitical risks.

According to Sumit Ritolia, an analyst at Kpler, "Russian crude oil has become the country's strongest energy security shield, especially after the disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz."

US senators introduced a revised bipartisan bill on Tuesday imposing sanctions on Russia, which would sanction Russian officials while also softening the proposed tariffs on countries importing Russian oil and gas.

This move reduces the 500 percent tariff proposed in the original bill introduced in April 2025 — targeting the five largest buyers of Russian energy, including China and India — down to a maximum of 100 percent. It also grants exemptions to countries that import less than 15 percent of Russia's natural gas exports, provided they are taking significant steps to reduce those purchases.