An developing El Nino transition within the equatorial Pacific Ocean stands as the core reason behind an impending dry spell.

Breaking its usual schedule, the vital Southwest Monsoon officially reached Kerala on Thursday, triggering the start of India's multi-month agricultural rainy season. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) confirmed the weather pattern has expanded across the remaining pockets of the Arabian Sea, encompassing the entire Lakshadweep archipelago, Kerala, Mahe, alongside regions of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.

An developing El Nino transition within the equatorial Pacific Ocean stands as the core reason behind an impending dry spell. Meteorologists trace this to shifting oceanic temperatures that historically weaken subcontinent rainfall systems, threatening agricultural output.

Consequently, the IMD dramatically altered its seasonal rainfall outlook alongside the arrival announcement, cautioning that the nation faces a high probability of below-normal precipitation throughout this entire cycle. This progression delayed the weather bureau's initial forecast of an early May 26 arrival.

Statistically, total seasonal rainfall nationwide is projected to drop to roughly 90 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA). Calculated from historical data between 1971 and 2020, the benchmark stands at 87 centimeters, meaning any drop below this specific ninety percent margin officially triggers a "deficient rainfall" classification.

Currently, a neutral climate phase is shifting into a definite El Nino status. Experts state that while its impact will remain minimal through June, this environmental phenomenon will inevitably gather intense strength by September.