Exports to other countries in the region added a smaller but relevant share.

India’s USD 135B Remittance Inflows May Be Hit by West Asia Conflict: CRISIL 

Concerns are emerging over the potential impact of ongoing tensions in West Asia on India’s external finances, particularly remittance inflows from the Gulf region.

India received over 135 billion dollars in remittances in the 2024-25 financial year, maintaining its position as the world’s top recipient. A significant share of this money comes from Indian workers in Gulf Cooperation Council countries, making the flows vulnerable to any economic disruption in the region.

According to Crisil, a decline in earnings among expatriate workers could put additional pressure on India’s current account deficit, especially at a time when the trade balance is already facing strain. The agency also highlighted that instability in West Asia may disrupt global supply chains, affecting export momentum.

India’s merchandise exports to GCC nations stood at 57 billion dollars, forming a notable portion of its overall outbound trade. Exports to other countries in the region added a smaller but relevant share.

At the same time, crude oil prices are expected to rise due to geopolitical uncertainty, which could increase India’s import bill. Crisil estimates an annual increase of up to nine percent in oil prices under its baseline scenario.

Taken together, these factors indicate that prolonged tensions in West Asia could have a multi-layered impact on India’s economy, spanning remittances, trade flows and energy costs.