Hung prediction: Exit poll hits and misses

Exit poll hits and misses

Exit polls for the Karnataka elections mostly predicted a hung Assembly in the state, but some pollsters came close to hitting the bullseye, with forecasts that almost tallied with the results announced today. The trends indicate that the BJP is likely to win 104 seats and the Congress 78. The Janata Dal (Secular) has won 37 and others have won three. The ABP-C Voter exit poll predicted 104-116 seats for the BJP while it gave 72-78 seats to the Congress, 20-29 to the JD(S) and 0-7 to others. Republic TV-Jan ki Baat gave 95-114 seats to the BJP, 73-82 to the Congress, 32-43 to the JD(S) and 2-3 to others. The Times Now-VMR poll predicted the BJP would win 94 seats, Congress 97 and JD (S) 28, while Times Now-Chanakya forecast a majority for the BJP with 120 seats and gave the Congress and the JD(S) 73 and 26 seats respectively.

The India Today-Axis exit poll had put the Congress in a pole position and predicted its tally in the range of 106 to 118 seats, and that of the BJP between 79 and 92 seats. The JD(S) tally would be between 22 and 30 seats, it said. The Poll of Exit Polls on NDTV forecast 97, 90 and 31 seats for the BJP, the Congress and the JD(S) respectively. According to the Election Commission, the BJP has won 92 seats and is leading in 12 in the state, while the Congress has won 73 seats and is leading in five constituencies. An Independent, a candidate from the Bahujan Samaj Party and another from the Karnataka Pragnyavantha Janatha Party have won one seat each. Elections were held on May 12. The Congress had won 122 seats in the 2013 state Assembly polls following a split in the BJP, which was reduced to 40 seats while the JD(S) had also bagged 40 seats.