India's Carbon Emissions Projected to Rise 1.4% in 2025 Amid Global Record Levels

Globally, emissions from coal, oil, and gas are projected to rise by “0.8%, 1%, and 1.3%”, respectively. File Photo.

India’s Carbon Emissions Projected to Rise 1.4% in 2025 Amid Global Record Levels

According to the Global Carbon Project (GCP), India’s carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by “1.4% in 2025. On a global level, fossil-fuel emissions are expected to rise “1.1%”, reaching a record “38.1 billion tonnes”. These figures emerge as world leaders gather at “COP30 in Belem, Brazil”, underscoring the gap between current climate action and required action to limit global warming.

While decarbonisation efforts are gaining traction, they remain insufficient to offset growing energy demand. “Land-use emissions”, such as deforestation, are projected to fall slightly to “4.1 billion tonnes”, while fossil fuel use continues to dominate. Recovery from the “El Niño weather pattern” has helped ecosystems absorb more carbon, but this is far from sufficient to balance global emissions. At the current pace, the “remaining carbon budget to stay below 1.5°C” could be exhausted before 2030.

Globally, emissions from coal, oil, and gas are projected to rise by “0.8%, 1%, and 1.3%”, respectively. International aviation is expected to surge “6.8%, surpassing pre-COVID levels, while shipping remains steady. Regionally, China’s emissions may grow “0.4%”, the US “1.9%”, the EU “0.4%”, and Japan sees a “2.2% decline”. India’s moderate increase is attributed to an “early monsoon”, which reduced cooling demand, and a strong expansion of “renewable energy”, limiting coal consumption.

Despite some progress, the situation is fragile. Tropical forests in Southeast Asia and South America, once key carbon sinks, are now net emitters due to deforestation and warming. Scientists, including “Professor Pierre Friedlingstein”, warn that current reduction rates are insufficient, making a “sub-1.5°C global warming target increasingly unlikely” without urgent action.

For India, the projected 1.4% rise signals the need to accelerate the “transition to renewables, enhance energy efficiency, and protect forests”. Globally, fossil fuel emissions continue to rise despite climate pledges, highlighting the urgent need for stronger policies and investments.

India’s emissions growth is slower than in previous years, but global Carbon Dioxide levels continue to rise, emphasising that incremental progress is not enough to avoid serious climate consequences.