India's Record-Low Retail Inflation- CPI Slows to 0.25% in October 2025
This is the “lowest retail inflation reading since 2012” and the lowest in the current CPI series that began in 2015.
India’s Record-Low Retail Inflation- CPI Slows to 0.25% in October 2025
According to data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Wednesday, India’s retail inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reduced sharply to “0.25% in October 2025”, down from 1.54% in September. This is the “lowest retail inflation reading since 2012” and the lowest in the current CPI series that began in 2015.
The sharp moderation in prices was driven mainly by “record-low food prices” and the impact of the “recent GST rate cuts”. Food prices, which make up nearly half of the CPI basket, fell “5.02% year-on-year”, compared to a revised 2.33% drop in September. Vegetables saw the steepest decline, dropping “27.57%”, following a 21.38% fall in September. The fall in inflation was also aided by a “favourable base effect”, as food inflation had surged last year.
Sector-wise, “housing inflation” declined slightly to 2.96% in October from 2.98% in September, covering only urban households. “Education costs” rose to 3.49% from 3.44%, while “healthcare inflation” declined to 3.86% from 4.39%, reflecting a small relief in medical expenses. “Transport and communication costs” also dropped to 0.94% from 1.82%, whereas “fuel and light” remained unchanged at 1.98%.
The “GST overhaul”, implemented on September 22, contributed to lower prices across sectors. Many daily-use items, including stationery and dairy products, were moved to the lower 5% slab, while other goods were simplified under the 5% and 18% brackets, easing costs for households.
Economists caution that the “current moderation may be temporary”. With the favourable base effect fading, the Reserve Bank of India expects retail inflation to “rebound to around 4% next quarter”. Nonetheless, for consumers, the month-long relief in essentials and household items offers a rare respite, while businesses can benefit from lower input costs in the short term.
October 2025’s record-low CPI shows India’s inflation at a historic low, driven by falling food prices, tax cuts, and seasonal effects. While temporary, it provides relief for households and businesses, making it a crucial economic development to watch.